FOI Request - Review of Elgin School Catchment

Request 101000432801

Review of FOI 101000425692 which can be viewed here.

We have your response to our FOI, which is attached below.

We note that your response is a re-iteration of paragraphs 1, 2 and 5 of the “Methodology” explanation given in the preface to the document “School Roll Forecasts: based on annual census 2014”.

We are not seeking information either on methodology or sources of statistics. Our original enquiry clearly refers to the statistical evidence itself and we are still seeking this information. There is not a single statistic in your response.

Our FOI is due to be responded to by 21 April 2016 and it seems entirely reasonable that all the statistical
evidence that has gone in to the school roll forecasting process, as we asked for in our FOI request, should be sent out by midday on Friday 22 April 2016 at the latest.

Our enquiry is perfectly reasonable and we expect your reply to reflect a spirit of openness and transparency.

Response 18-04-2016

1. The latest edition of the Moray School Roll Forecasts dated 22 June 2015 used the Community Health Index  data provided by NHS Grampian, which gives information on the number of pre-school children by year of birth and postcode, and forms the basis of the primary 1 estimates for 2015 to 2018. Consideration is also given to children in funded early learning and childcare in Moray. Beyond this, forecasts are based on recent trends, taking into account the projected number of births in Moray.

2. Birth rate trends are based on live birth and projected birth information produced and published by the National Records of Scotland (formerly known as the General Register Office for Scotland)

3. The latest edition of the Moray School Roll Forecasts dated 22 June 2015 used the housing development information available within the Moray 2015 Housing Land Audit. The number of school children estimated within new housing developments is 0.15 pupils per household for secondary school calculations and 0.3 pupils per household for primary school calculations.

4. The forecasting method takes into account the effect of placing requests. This is done by adjusting the primary 1 intake to reflect recent placing request trends. Not all primary 7 pupils transfer to their zoned secondary school, and an estimate is made on the proportion of primary 7 class rolls that will go into secondary 1 at each secondary school. Consideration is again given to known placing request trends. The previous trends will not necessarily be indicative of future trends due to unknown factors, for example, the changing reputation of the school with a positive or negative HMI inspection report, or greater or lower availability of childcare within a school catchment area, etc. The latest edition of the Moray School Roll Forecasts dated 22 June 2015 used the net number of placing requests that were approved as at 30th April 2015. Approved placing requests do not necessarily reflect the total number received, as some requests may be refused due to capacity.
 

Response 03-05-2016 

We have revised our response to your original questions, providing statistics where possible.

Q1 - The statistical data used to compute Primary One entrants for the 5 years August 2015 to August 2019 per school

The Community Health Index data is provided to us by NHS Grampian. The information we receive is presented to us as total number of children within the following age ranges – 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, and 4-5.  When predicting the Primary 1 entry for those in the 0-3 age range we use an average over 2 years based on the expected year of entry to Primary 1.  An average figure is used because not all children enter Primary 1 in the year we expect them too, as some families choose to defer entry to Primary 1 or submit an early entry to school request.  Beyond this, forecasts are based on recent trends, taking into account the projected number of births in Moray.

 

Q2 - The statistical evidence used for birth rate trends in the above forecast tables

The information on birth rate trends is available from the National Records of Scotland website and is therefore exempt under Section 25 of the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002, information otherwise accessible. For ease of reference please find a link to the web page here.  

When predicting the Primary 1 entry we use a division over 2 years based on the expected year of entry to Primary 1.  The birth rate factor is then calculated from a 3 year moving mean.  As an example, using information from the National Records of Scotland website, the actual number of births between 2009 and 2012 are as follows:-

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2009

2010

2011

2012

966

928

973

915

Children are generally expected to enter Primary 1 at age 5.  Dividing the 2010 figure by the 2009 figure is 0.9607, which is the figure used for the 2014/15 school year as noted below:-

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

0.9607

1.0485

0.9404

The birth rate factor for 2015/16 is 0.9832, which is a 3 year moving mean of the calculations above.

 

Q3 - The statistical evidence used for new housebuilding per catchment area, and the numbers of school children estimated from each in the above forecast tables

The figures from the Moray 2015 Housing Land Audit are shown within the published School Roll Forecasts document to 2019. This information is therefore exempt under Section 25 of the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002, information otherwise accessible, however for ease of reference please find these  figures in the table below.  From 2020 and beyond the predicted housing is based on the expected build rate.

School

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020+

Bishopmill

38

18

0

36

50

50

50

50

96

Elgin East End

47

0

0

2

2

2

0

6

0

Elgin West End

3

0

0

5

20

27

19

7

10

Seafield

0

0

0

0

54

54

54

50

1300

Greenwards

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

50

85

New Elgin

100

83

91

103

84

64

30

30

19

 

Q4 - The statistical basis on which placing requests influenced annual roll forecast per school 2015 to 2021 in the above forecast tables

Placing requests are taken from Primary 1 placing requests net figures – calculated from requests into and requests out of a school.  The 2015 net figures calculations are shown within the table below.  Predicted figures are generally based on a 2 year average of previous placing requests, but can be adjusted to reflect recent placing request trends.  These figures are shown within the published School Roll Forecasts document.  

 

-

+

Net

PRIMARY

P1

P1

P1

Aberlour  

6

6

Alves

2

3

1

Anderson's

5

20

15

Applegrove

19

14

-5

Bishopmill

3

22

19

Botriphnie

1

 

-1

Burghead

5

 

-5

Cluny

16

4

-12

Craigellachie

2

1

-1

Crossroads

1

 

-1

Cullen  

2

2

Dallas    

0

Dyke  

7

7

East End

16

5

-11

Findochty

3

 

-3

Glenlivet

1

 

-1

Greenwards

1

37

36

Hopeman

2

1

-1

Hythehill

13

6

-7

Inveravon    

0

Keith

14

2

-12

Kinloss

10

3

-7

Knockando

1

 

-1

Lhanbryde

7

 

-7

Logie

1

2

1

Millbank

8

2

-6

Milne's

4

 

-4

Mortlach

2

1

-1

Mosstodloch  

3

3

Mosstowie  

4

4

New Elgin

34

 

-34

Newmill

1

4

3

Pilmuir

17

6

-11

Portessie

1

2

1

Portgordon  

1

1

Portknockie

2

2

0

Rothes

2

1

-1

Rothiemay  

1

1

Seafield

23

6

-17

St Gerardine

3

12

9

St Peter's  

18

18

St Sylvester's  

12

12

St Thomas  

7

7

Tomintoul    

0

West End

17

23

6

Out of area

3

 

-3

 

240

240

 

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